New York, NY— Economic inactivity among young people is often treated as a labor market problem. New research from the Community Impact Institute finds that, for many young people, the path begins years earlier—in the classroom.

The new report, Disengaged by 16? How Early Indicators Shape Britain’s Path to Economic Inactivity, finds that weakening school belonging, declining attendance, unmet learning and mental health needs, and falling attainment can accumulate throughout childhood, reinforcing one another until disengagement becomes much harder to reverse.

The report is authored by Victoria Aarons, Deputy Director, and Ania Mendrek, Senior Fellow, of the Community Impact Institute, and is part of the Institute’s Spotlight: Breaking Britain’s Barriers research series examining the causes of economic inactivity and what can reconnect people to opportunity.

England’s principal Risk of NEET Indicator typically begins screening in Year 10 or 11, even though many of the warning signs it measures—including poor attendance, low attainment and weak connection to school—can be visible much earlier. The report argues that intervening during the pre-GCSE years can be more effective and less costly than waiting until a young person has already withdrawn from education or entered economic inactivity.

The scale of the challenge is significant. Approximately 1 million young people aged 16 to 24 are currently not in education, employment or training in the UK, while around 2.8 million working-age people are economically inactive because of long-term sickness.

The research identifies three early indicators that deserve greater attention:

• Belonging. Young people are more likely to remain engaged when they are known by trusted adults, have meaningful responsibility and understand where learning can lead.

• Attendance. Persistent absence is not simply an attendance problem; it can be a signal of unmet educational, emotional or developmental need.

• Attainment. Falling behind can progressively narrow the education and employment pathways available to young people, particularly when support arrives only after difficulties have escalated.

The paper examines these patterns through two practice-based case studies: Big Picture Learning Doncaster, which works with young people during critical transition years through trusted relationships, personalized learning and real-world experience; and The New School in Croydon, which has re-engaged young people experiencing school avoidance, persistent absence and unmet SEND needs.

The report calls for five changes: earlier intervention before the GCSE years; mental health and wellbeing support embedded within education; more flexible and relational approaches to teaching; funded support during reintegration and transitions; and greater integration of education, health, family and employment services around the whole child.

The full report is part of Spotlight: Breaking Britain’s Barriers, the Fedcap Community Impact Institute’s research-in-real-time examination of economic inactivity across the United Kingdom.

Visit Spotlight: Breaking Britain’s Barriers here. Be part of the conversation at #BreakingBritainsBarriers.